MOVAC

(Modelización y reconstrucción de la variabilidad climática mediante una jerarquía de modelos climáticos).

Aim

The aim of this project is to study climate variability at different spatial and temporal scales, from interannual to secular. The specific scientific goals are concerned with four different time periods focusing on specific timescales: multi-centennial to millennial climate variability, interannual to multi-decadal climate variability during the last millennium, interannual to interdecadal climate variability during the observational period and future climate change.

 

Publications

Álvarez-Solas, J., Montoya, M., Ritz, C., Ramstein, G., Charbit, S., Dumas, C., Nisancioglu, K., Dokken, T., Ganopolski, A. (2011a). Heinrich event 1: an example of dynamical ice-sheet reaction to oceanic changes. Clim. Past, 7, 1297-1306, doi:10.5194/cp-7-1297-2012a.

Alvarez-Solas J., G. Ramstein. On the triggering mechanism of Heinrich events (2011b) PNAS 13,108, no. 50, E1359–E1360.

Alvarez-Solas, J., Robinson, A., and Ritz, C. (2012b). Can recent ice discharges following the Larsen-B ice-shelf collapse be used to infer the driving mechanisms of millennial-scale variations of the Laurentide ice sheet?. The Cryosphere, 6, 687-693, doi:10.5194/tc-6-687.

Banderas, R., Álvarez-Solas, J., and Montoya, M. (2012a). Role of CO2 and Southern Ocean winds in glacial abrupt climate change, Clim. Past, 8, 1011-1021, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1011-2012.

Blanco-Fuentes J. and P. Zurita-Gotor (2011). The driving of baroclinic anomalies at different timescales.Geophys. Res. Let., 38, L23805, doi:10.1029/2011GL049785

Barriopedro, D., R. Garcia-Herrera, J. F. Gonzalez-Rouco, R. M. Trigo (2010) Application of blocking diagnosis methods to General Circulation Models. Part II: model simulations. Clim. Dyn., 35, 1393-1409, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9824-7.

Buentgen, U., D. Frank, J. Franke, R. Wilson, F. González-Rouco and J. Esper (2010): As we see it: Tree ring proxy number and location to reconstruct European climate variability. Climate Research, 41, 125-130, DOI: 10.3354/cr00848.

García-Serrano, J., Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; I. Polo, T. Losada (2012) Large-scale atmospheric response to Mediterranean summer SST anomalies. Clim. Dyn. (en revision).

García-Serrano J., T. Losada, B. Rodríguez-Fonseca (2011): Extratropical atmospheric response to the Atlantic Niño decaying phase. J Climate. doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3640.1

García-Serrano J., B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, I. Bladé, P. Zurita-Gotor and A. de la Cámara (2011) Rotational atmospheric circulation during North Atlantic-European winter: the influence of ENSO. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0968-y.

González-Reviriego, N.; Rodríguez-Puebla C. y Rodríguez-Fonseca, B. : Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Indices simulated with CMIP3, Climate Dynamics (en revisión).

González-Rouco, J. F., H. Beltrami, E. Zorita, M. B. Stevens (2009) Borehole climatology: a discussion based on contributions from climate modelling. Climate of the Past. , 5, 97-127.

Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F., L. Fernandez-Donado, C. C. Raible, D. Barriopedro, J. Luterbacher, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Swingedouw, J. Servonnat, E. Zorita, S. Wagner and C. M. Ammann (2011): Medieval Climate Anomaly to Little Ice Age transition as simulated by current climate models. PAGES news, 19, 1, 7-8.

Hegerl, G., J. Luterbacher, J. F. Gonzalez-Rouco, S. Tett, T. Crowley and E. Xoplaki (2011): Influence of human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperatures. Nature Geoscience, Published online, DOI:10.1038/NGEO1057.

López-Parages J., B. Rodríguez-Fonseca (2010): La Transición Climática y la variabilidad climática en la región Mediterránea.  Meteorología y Energías Renovables.  XXXI Jornadas Científicas de la Asociación Meteorológica Española, 11 pp. ISBN: 978-84-613-9596-5.

López-Parages J., B. Rodríguez-Fonseca (2012): Multidecadal Modulation of El Niño influence on the Euro-Mediterranean rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 39 , L02704, doi:10.1029/2011GL050049

Losada T., B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, F. Kucharski (2012a): Tropical Influence on the Summer Mediterranean Climate, Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 13, pp. 36-42. DOI 10.1002/asl.359.

Losada, B. Rodriguez-Fonseca, E. Mohino, J. Bader, S. Janicot, C. R. Mechoso (2012b). Tropical SST and Sahel rainfall: A non-stationary relationship. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L12705, doi:10.1029/2012GL052423, 2012

MacDougall, A., H. Beltrami, J. F. González-Rouco, M. B. Stevens and E. Bourlon (2010): Comparison of observed and General Circulation Model derived continental sub-surface heat flux in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D12109, DOI:10.1029/ 2009JD013170.\2022, JGR Highlight.

Martín-Rey M, I.Polo, B.Rodríguez-Fonseca and F. Kucharski (2012): Changes in the interannual variability of the tropical Pacific as a response to an equatorial Atlantic forcing, Sci. Mar. 76S1, doi: 10.3989/scimar.03610.19A

Mohino, E. B. Rodriguez-Fonseca, C. R. Mechoso, S. Gervois, P. Ruti and F. Chauvin (2011a) Impacts of Tropical Pacific/Indian oceans on the seasonal cycle of the West African monsoon. Journal of Climate, August 2011, Vol. 24, No. 15 : pp. 3878-3891, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3988.1

Mohino E., Janicot S. and Bader J (2011b) Sahel rainfall and decadal to multi-decadal sea surface variability. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 37, 419-440. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0867-2

Mohino, E. B. Rodriguez-Fonseca, T. Losada, S. Gervois, S. Janicot, J. Bader, P. Ruti, F. Chauvin (2011c) Changes in the interannual SST-forced signals on West African rainfall. AGCM intercomparison. Clim Dyn 37:1707–1725

Mohino, E. M., S. Janicot, H. Douville, L. Li (2012) Impact of the Indian part of the MJO on West Africa using nudged climate simulations. Clim. Dyn., 38, 2319-2334. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1206-y.

Montoya, M., A. Born, A. Levermann (2011) Reversed North Atlantic gyre dynamics in present and glacial climates. Clim. Dyn., 36, 1107-1108, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0729-y.

Ortega, P., E. Hawkins, R. T. Sutton (2011) Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a coupled GCM. Clim. Dyn., 37, 1771, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1025-1]

Ortega, P., M. Montoya, J. F. González-Rouco (2012a) Simulated evolution of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios. Clim. Dyn. 38 (9-10), 1925-1947, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1081-6

Ortega, P., M. Montoya, F. González-Rouco, H. Beltrami, D. Swingedouw (2012b) Variability of the ocean heat content during the last millennium. An assessment with the ECHO-g Model (enviado a Climate Dynamics)

Polo I., A. Ullmann, P. Roucou and B. Fontaine, 2011   Weather Regimes in the Euro-Atlantic and Mediterranean sector and relationship with West   African rainfall over the period 1989-2008 from a Self-Organizing Maps Approach. J. Climate, 24, 3423–3432.

Rath, V, J. F. González-Rouco, H. Goosse (2012) Impact of postglacial warming on borehole reconstructions of last millennium temperatures. Clim. Past, 8, 1059-1066, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1059-2012, 2012

Robinson, A., Calov, R. and Ganopolski, A. (2012). Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet, Nature Climate Change, 2(4), 1-4, doi:10.1038/nclimate1449.

Zurita-Gotor, P,   G. K. Vallis (2010). Circulation sensitivity to heating in a simple model of baroclinic turbulence. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 1543-1558.

Zurita-Gotor, P, G. K. Vallis (2011). Dynamics of midlatitude tropopause height in an idealized model. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 823-838.

Zurita-Gotor, P,   G. K. Vallis (2012). The determination of extratropical tropopause height in an idealized gray-radiation model. J. Atmos. Sci, en revisión

 

In preparation

Alvarez-Solas, J., M. Montoya, A. J. Robinson, R. Banderas-Carreño, C. Ritz, A. Ganopolski,  (2012a) Northern Hemisphere millennial-scale ice discharges as a response to oceanic forcing simulated with a hybrid ice-sheet/ice-shelf model (en preparación).

Banderas, R., Álvarez-Solas, J., Robinson, A., Montoya, M. (2012b). Glacial abrupt climate change as a result of internal oscillations (en preparación).

Banderas, R., et al. (2012c). Atmospheric teleconnections during glacial abrupr climate change (en preparación).

Barroso-Pellico JA, and P. Zurita-Gotor (2012). Intraseasonal modes of variability of zonal-mean extratropical tropopause height (en preparación)

Losada-Doval, T. y B. Rodriguez-Fonseca (2012)  Atmospheric Response to Changes in the Atlantic Equatorial Mode: Tropical and Extratropical Impacts (en preparación)

Mohino E., T. Losada (2012). Impacts of the Equatorial mode in the late XXI Century following the RCP85 path. (en preparación)

Rath, V., J. Alvarez-Solas, M. Montoya, C. Ritz (2012). Using glacial period scale ice sheet models for the reconstruction of late Holocene temperatures from borehole temperature profiles (en preparación)

Rodriguez-Fonseca, B., J. Bader, T. Losada-Doval (2012a)  Tropical and Extratropical atmospheric Response to  the Atlantic Equatorial Mode under changes in the Background State of SST (en preparación).

Rodriguez-Fonseca, B., T.L. Doval, I. Polo, E.Mohino (2012b) Changes in the Walker cell from Atlantic remote forcing (en preparación).

Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; I.Polo; M. Martín del Rey, E. Mohino, T. Losada-Doval, J. Villamayor, (2012c) Natural Multidecadal Modulation of the connection between the Atlantic and Pacific Niños (en preparación).

Zurita-Gotor, P. and J. Blanco-Fuentes (2012). Zonal index persistence in the two layer model (en preparación)

Zurita-Gotor, P.  and  G. K. Vallis (2012b). Evaluation of turbulent diffusion closures in an idealized model with high vertical resolution (en preparación)

 

Team

 

Jorge Álvarez Solas
Blanca Ayarzagüena Porras
Rubén Banderas Carreño
Jesús Ángel Barroso
Javier Blanco Fuentes
Álvaro de la Cámara Illescas
Laura Fernández Donado
Javier García Serrano
Nube González Reviriego
Jesús Fidel González Rouco
Petr Kolar
Jorge López Parages
Teresa Losada Doval
Marta Martín del Rey
Elsa Mohino Harris
Marisa Montoya
Pablo Ortega Montilla
Irene Polo Sánchez
Volker Rath
Alexander Robinson
Belén Rodríguez de Fonseca
Encarnación Serrano Mendoza
Concepción Rodríguez Puebla
Julián Villamayor
Pablo Zurita Gotor

 

Funding

Funding: Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente, 2008-2012
(Ref. 200800050084028)